Barbados Meteorological Services
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20170330 PERIOD: Morning
Mixed weather conditions prevailed over the Eastern Caribbean during the night. Barbados encountered fair to occasionally cloudy skies as some shallow low level cloud patches passed over the island. These patches generated some brief showers however, they were confined to the northern districts. Over the central and southern Windwards, cirriform clouds originating from deep convection over Colombia streaked over the area by the predominantly upper level southwesterly wind flow. Despite this, shower activity was notably absent. On the other hand, the Leewards and northern Windwards had their share of shower activity as a cold front made its presence felt. Satellite imagery noted a thin band of clouds associated with this feature making a progressive dip towards the south and this was also verified by the radar composites. During the early morning hours, the islands of Antigua and Montserrat had some moderate showers.
Further to the south, over Trinidad and Tobago, fair conditions prevailed. Similiar conditions were experienced over the coasts of the Guianas, however the interior disticts were under cloudy skies and some scattered showers.
Winds across the region ranged from light and variable over the Leewards and the northern Windwards, with 5 to 15 knot winds across the remainder of the region. Sea swells remained slight to moderate peaking to 2.0m.
Fair to partly cloudy skies were evident across the Bahamas due to the presence of a high pressure system near 26N 76W. These conditions were extended across Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a deep layered trough system made a rapid progress to the north of Hispaniola. Most of the significant convection fortunately remained over the open waters. Some low level convergence was observed in the eastern Caribbean Sea as satellite imagery revealed an extensive area of low level clouds persisting across the area. To the east of this, the tail-end of the cold front trailed across the Leewards and northern Windwards. Further westwards, in the Gulf of Mexico, some low level cloud patches were evident while the tail-end of a cold front lashed the northwestern section of the area.
As the frontal system continues on its southward tour of the northern half of the island chain, residents in those islands can expect periods of occasional cloudiness with brief scatered showers for the next 12 to 18 hours. Following the front's passage, a gradual improvement in the weather conditions is anticipated. As far as Barbados and the central Windwards are concerned, the presence of the slack pressure gradient due to a deep layered low pressure system in the Central Atlantic, could result in the possibility of some brief showers occuring mainly during the afternoon over some central and northwestern areas.
From late Thursday into early Friday, a weak low level trough is expected to pass over Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. However, a look at the model analysis is indicating limited moisture levels being associated with this feature hence no significant weather is anticipated. Following this, a ridging pattern is noticeable across Barbados and the lesser Antilles for the next few days and moisture will be confined to the low levels thus inhibiting any significant cloud development. Furthermore, a dry and stable atmosphere is expected to take up residence across Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean throughout the weekend.
Sea conditions are expected to remain slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking to 2.0m.
With the deep layered trough system moving eastwards into the Central Atlantic, the high pressure system with its center over the southeastern Bahamas will continue to re-energize and bring about fair weather conditions over the next few days. An upper level jet over the western Caribbean is expected to add support to a shearline over southeastern Cuba around Saturday and Sunday. As a result, an increase in cloudiness and some scattered showers are expected to affect Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Hispaniola and the Leeward islands during this period.